Recent Export Highlights in European Union’s (EU) agri-food trade

In November 2024, the European Union’s (EU) agri-food trade experienced a slight downturn following a peak in October. According to the European Commission’s monthly agri-food trade report, exports reached €20.1 billion in November, marking a 7% decrease from October’s performance but aligning with figures from November 2023. Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, exports totaled €217.2 billion, reflecting a 3% growth compared to the same period in 2023.

Product Categories: Notable increases were observed in exports of coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices, particularly cocoa derivatives such as paste, butter, and powder. Olive oil exports also surged by €2.1 billion (45%), primarily due to sustained high prices, which have recently started returning to 2023 levels.

• Market Destinations: The United States and the United Kingdom recorded the largest increases in EU exports between January and November 2024, driven by strong demand for products like olive oil and a variety of goods.

• Cereals: Conversely, cereals exports experienced a significant reduction, decreasing by €2.4 billion (18%). This decline is mainly attributed to a 14% drop in prices. ​
  

Import Dynamics

EU agri-food imports remained robust in November 2024, totaling €15.5 billion. Although this represents a 5% decrease from October, it is still 18% higher year-on-year. Cumulative imports for the year increased by 7%, driven by high prices and growing import volumes. ​

• Product Categories: Imports of coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices increased overall by €8.4 billion (44%) from January to November 2024, driven by higher cocoa and coffee prices and rising volumes.

• Source Countries: Côte d’Ivoire recorded the largest increase in EU imports (up €2.3 billion, 61%), driven by rising cocoa prices. Ukraine saw the second-largest increase (up €1.3 billion, 13%), driven by higher imports of vegetable oils (€858 million) and oilseeds (€684 million).

• Cereals: Cumulative imports of cereals had the largest reduction, with a decrease of €1.9 billion compared to 2023 (17%), primarily explained by reduced prices (14%), while imported volumes decreased by 3%.

Trade Balance and Competitiveness

The EU’s positive agri-food trade balance in November 2024 underscores the competitiveness of its exports. Despite the monthly fluctuations, the overall growth in exports and imports indicates a dynamic trade environment.

External Factors Influencing Trade

Several external factors have influenced EU agri-food trade dynamics:

• EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: The trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries, initiated in 2019, has caused discontent among EU farmers who argue that imported farm products from South America do not meet European standards. The agreement, which has not yet been adopted, includes import quotas on certain agricultural products from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, either duty-free or at reduced rates. For instance, the EU will import 99,000 metric tons of beef and 180,000 tons of poultry from these countries. Other notable quotas include 190,000 tons of sugar, 650,000 tons of ethanol, and 1,000,000 tons of maize. Additionally, the agreement will reduce or eliminate duties on soybean product imports for animal feed. EU farmers fear this will negatively affect their market due to increased competition and lower standards for imported goods.

• Farmers’ Protests: In November 2024, French farmers protested against the EU-Mercosur trade deal, expressing concerns over increased competition from South American imports produced under less stringent environmental and labor standards. Similar sentiments were echoed by Polish farmers, who protested against Ukrainian grain imports and EU policies perceived as detrimental to local agriculture.

Conclusion

The easing of EU agri-food trade in November 2024, following October’s peak, reflects the sector’s responsiveness to global market dynamics, policy developments, and internal challenges. While certain product categories and markets have shown growth, others face declines, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and strategic adjustments to maintain the EU’s competitive edge in the global agri-food landscape.